Vietnam in 2025: Between Historical Legacy and Future Ambitions

On September 2, 2025, Vietnam celebrated the 80th anniversary of its independence. Rather than grand parades, the occasion was marked by a symbolic cultural gathering in Hanoi. This understated approach reflects that the memory remains recent and sensitive, but it also signals a desire to show that the country has entered a new era—one of maturity.

Vietnam is no longer only a nation defined by its heroic past; it now seeks to establish itself as a mid-level industrial and technological power in Southeast Asia, where industrial ambitions, demographic challenges, and delicate diplomatic choices converge.

A rapidly changing society

Since 2024, Vietnamese authorities have undertaken a major administrative overhaul: several ministries have merged, and tens of thousands of local government positions have been eliminated. The goal is to make the state more streamlined and efficient.

Digital transformation is also accelerating, with electronic IDs now available for all citizens and many administrative procedures moved online, making them simpler and faster.

In addition, a law on science and innovation passed in 2025 sets a framework for protecting intellectual property and strengthening ties between universities and businesses. Analyst Arnaud Leveau, president of Asia Centre, notes that these measures could be seen as “the early steps of a selective industrial policy, readable for investors and aligned with the goal of technological autonomy.”

An economy in search of added value

With more than 100 million people, Vietnam is the world’s 15th most populous country. Yet its population is aging rapidly: by 2030, nearly one in five citizens will be over 60. This demographic shift forces the government to rethink development. The economy can no longer rely solely on the abundant, low-cost labor that fueled the export-driven model of the 1990s and 2000s.

Since the Doi Moi reforms of 1986, Vietnam has become a major industrial hub in Southeast Asia. But now, the country aims to move up the value chain. Semiconductors are central to this strategy, with a recently approved $500 million chip factory and a target to train 50,000 specialized engineers by 2030. Power electronics, automotive components, and cybersecurity round out this pivot.

Vietnam is also investing heavily in infrastructure modernization: projects such as the high-speed rail line between Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, new technology free zones in Da Nang, and liberalization of the gold market to strengthen financial transparency.

Bamboo diplomacy

It is on the international stage that Vietnam’s maturity is most clearly visible. Its guiding principle, “bamboo diplomacy”, rests on strong roots (defending national interests), a firm trunk (political stability), and flexible branches (adaptability in partnerships).

This approach is built on the “three no’s”: no binding military alliances, no foreign bases, and no automatic alignment. As Dr. Leveau puts it, “This flexible diplomacy represents an attempt at balance, not equivalence.”

Diversified and balanced international relations

Western partnerships: cooperation and caution

Vietnam has deepened cooperation with the United States in strategic areas such as semiconductors, cybersecurity, and clean energy. Yet the relationship remains fragile. This year, the U.S. threatened tariffs of up to 46% on certain Vietnamese products, before settling on a 20% compromise. This dynamic pushes Vietnam both to improve traceability and value-added in exports, and to diversify its buyers to avoid dependence on a single partner.

The European Union and France offer a valuable alternative. Supported by trade and legal agreements, this partnership focuses on green finance, smart infrastructure, aerospace, and low-carbon energy. France, despite an imbalance in imports and exports, plays an important role in education and cultural cooperation, reinforcing historical trust. Europe is viewed as a “third path”: less threatening than China, more predictable than the U.S.

Asian partnerships: co-development and regional integration

Japan and South Korea remain leading investors. Today, Seoul is Vietnam’s top foreign investor, integrating the country at the core of global value chains. Tokyo, for its part, supports Vietnam’s energy and logistics resilience, vital for industry. Both countries provide what Vietnam values most: stable, long-term investments and technology transfer, rather than short-term profit-seeking.

Vietnam also plays a driving role in ASEAN, pushing to strengthen regional economic mechanisms such as the RCEP free trade agreement, while advocating greater coordination on infrastructure and energy transition. The organization provides a stable framework to buffer great-power rivalries, and Vietnam champions a cooperative approach to strengthen cohesion against external pressures.

Historical partners: cooperation under watch

Relations with China—Vietnam’s largest trading partner and a key player in supply chains—remain ambivalent. The South China Sea dispute continues to fuel mistrust. As a result, Vietnam cooperates while actively diversifying supply sources, particularly in critical minerals and energy, to avoid excessive dependence.

Russia continues to be an important supplier, particularly in energy and defense. However, Vietnam is gradually reducing reliance by turning to partners it deems more reliable over the long term.

As Leveau sums it up, “Vietnam seeks to diversify its partnerships to avoid irreversible dependence, while positioning itself in sectors that concentrate value.” The country aims for stability and autonomy by multiplying its partners, fostering domestic investment and innovation, and increasing value-added at home.

In 2025, Vietnam presents itself as a nation in full transformation. It is reforming its state, modernizing its economy, and pursuing an agile diplomacy—firmly rooted in principles yet flexible in partnerships.

The challenges remain significant: an aging population, trade dependency, energy security, and regional tensions. Yet, if the country succeeds in training its engineers, stabilizing its regulatory framework, and managing its interdependencies, it can solidify its status as an autonomous middle power—one able to combine resilience with adaptability, much like the bamboo that symbolizes its diplomacy.